Fitch Ratings warns that disruptions in the Middle East's oil supply could cause higher oil prices, impacting global economic growth and leading to inflation. If oil prices spike to $120 per barrel in 2024 and $100 per barrel in 2025, there could be a 0.4 percentage point reduction in global GDP growth in 2024 and a 0.1 percentage point lower growth in 2025. The impact would be felt across countries, with emerging markets and oil-producing countries experiencing varied effects. Higher oil prices would also lead to elevated inflation rates in certain countries.
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