While results are still pouring in for the US presidential election, Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump has 277 electoral votes and has the majority to win the White House. He is leading in key races left to be called, including Michigan. Trump declared victory as he addressed his followers at his campaign's watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida. He told the audience that it was “time to unite” as a country. “It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us,” he said.“We have to put our country first for at least a period of time,” he added. “We have to fix it.”The New York Times Needle, the newspaper's election night statistical model which estimates the final outcome of US presidential election based on partial results, showed more than 95% probability of victory for Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.Meanwhile, a video of disappointed people leaving Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris' election night watch party in Washington has gone viral.Also Read: Donald Trump on his way back to White House after conquering battleground PennsylvaniaLots of Indians on social media are also celebrating the likely win of Trump as many expect Trump victory to herald positive changes for India but experts have cautioned Trump as the US President might mean an element of considerable unpredictability in India-US relations.External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar offered a reassuring message yesterday: The India-US relationship is a train on steady tracks, no matter who takes the White House. In a joint press briefing with Australian counterpart Penny Wong, Jaishankar confidently stated that the India-US bond has not only survived but thrived through five different presidencies. "Our relationship with the United States will only grow, regardless of the election outcome," he said.Trump becoming the US President is expected to impact India on various counts, from immigration to terror to trade.Why Trump is being seen as a positive change for IndiaBesides, the largely held belief about Trump's positive chemistry with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his election campaign Trump has made many comments about India which indicate his presidency will be favourable for India and Indians. In his Diwali message, Trump pledged to safeguard the interests of Hindu Americans, vowing to shield them from what he described as the "anti-religion agenda of the radical left". Trump also condemned attacks on minorities in Bangladesh, including Hindus and Christians, amidst the political turmoil following the resignation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Trump also said he will strengthen ”our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi".Also Read: From trade, H-1B visas to markets, what Donald Trump’s victory means for IndiaAmid his election campaign, Trump praised PM Modi. Speaking in a podcast about Modi, Trump said: "Modi… India, he's a friend of mine, he's great. Before him, they were replacing them every year, very unstable. On the outside, he looks like your father, he's the nicest guy, but he's a total killer." Trump also reminisced about the 'Howdy Modi' event in Houston in 2019 (where the slogan Abki Baar Trump Sarkar’ was first heard), saying it was "beautiful and they filled up the stadium". He added: "We had a couple of occasions, when someone was threatening India, he would totally change. I said, let me help, I am very good with those people." Trump recalled Modi’s firm stance, quoting him: "I will do it, I will do anything necessary, we have defeated them for hundreds of years."Why Trump 2.0 can be favourable for IndiaFrom the Pannun murder-for-hire case to India-Russia trade to India's relations with China to the opportunity for Indian manufacturing, Trump 2.0 is likely to be favorable for India on many counts.A report by market research firm Nomura released a few months ago, which assessed the impact of Trump 2.0 on the US economy, geopolitics, financial markets and rest of the world, with a deep-dive into Asia, says Trump will be favourable for India despite his tough stance on trade and dollar.Also Read: PM Modi extends heartfelt congratulations as 'friend' Trump nears White House 'ghar waapasi'"India and the US share deep economic and strategic interests that are unlikely to becompromised, irrespective of the election outcome," the report says. "The US also sees India as a strategic counterweight to China on foreign policy. India is a large, domestic demand-driven economy, so the economic fallout of weaker US economic growth should be limited. Any frictions on trade and immigration will likely be more than offset by the gains accruing to India from the ongoing supply chain shifts, as de-risking from China gathers momentum under a Trump presidency."Quantifying the impact of the Trump presidency, the report says the economic impact will be limited, with a possible 0.1 pp reduction in GDP growth and neural impact on inflation due to the outsized weight of food in the CPI basket.The report says India is largely a domestic demand-driven economy, so a possible negative growth spillover from a weaker US growth should be limited. "On the contrary, lower commodity prices owing to the hit to China’s growth and lower oil prices, due to a greater push towards fossil fuels, could be a macro tailwind for India. We also believe that India is well-prepared to handle any volatility stemming from US policies, amid its large FX reserves buffer, stable growth-moderate inflation mix, high real rates, fiscal discipline and a continued focus on reforms."What India may lose on trade, it can gain on supply chainsThe report identifies two sources of trade friction between India and the US under a Trump presidency. First, India runs a trade surplus with the US, which might face scrutiny under Trump 2.0. Second, the Trump administration may look to take punitive steps against trading partners deemed to be artificially weakening their currencies.However, the report says, these two short-term disruptions are likely to be offset by America's China Plus One strategy of shifting supply chains away from China to friendly countries such as India. This policy is likely to gather steam under Trump."Our analysis shows that India remains at the forefront of the global value chains shifting away from China, owing to its large domestic consumer market, reforms momentum and the policy focus on domestic manufacturing," the report says. "We also find that unlike the ASEAN economies, where investments are led by Chinese firms relocating their production, most of the companies relocating to India are from the US, Europe and developed Asia. A more diversified funding source suggests that India is unlikely to fall under the direct line of fire, if the US takes retaliatory action against ‘third countries’ that are being used by China to bypass tariffs."However, India could be adversely affected by tighter immigration policies, the report says. Indian nationals received the highest number of work visas from the US, accounting for over 72% of the visas issued in FY23. Many analysts think due to India's unique geopolitical situation, it will be able to manage its interests whoever comes to power in the US. Under the Biden presidency, India-US ties strengthened despite initial concerns. Nomura analysts say India is likely to benefit on the foreign policy front under Trump 2.0. "Under Trump 2.0, any softening of the US’ stance with Russia could benefit India. With less emphasis on human rights and democratic values under Trump 2.0 (than under the Biden presidency), India should also see less friction on this sensitive issue. In the past, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump have enjoyed a strong personal rapport too. Consequently, we believe that another Trump presidency could turn out to be a net positive for India on foreign policy."
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